Time for Ireland to defy history and turn home draws into wins
If Ireland are to be in the shake up for the top two automatic qualifying places for Euro 2016 come November, then they really must win the next two Group D qualifiers at home to Poland next Sunday and against Scotland in June. The Poles have taken early advantage in the group, three points clear after four matches. Despite Germany suffering a post-World Cup hangover, the safe money would still be on them finishing on top of the group by its conclusion. So a win is vital for Ireland this weekend to reel in the Polish advantage in the race for second place. It would also be a huge statement in the group.
As well as needing the three points, Ireland needs to rediscover how to beat a rival nation at home. Playing like a home team should do, with fearlessness and invention. Like Scotland did to us in Hampden last November. It’s fair to say that we have not dominated any of the bigger football nations at home in competitive matches since the Mick McCarthy days. Granted McCarthy was blessed with a strong Irish squad at the turn of the Millennium with a mixture of youth and experience. And world class players in Roy Keane, Shay Given, Damien Duff and Robbie Keane. This was the most talented group of Irish players since the Euro 88/Italia 90 crop under Jack Charlton. Between 1998 and 2001, McCarthy’s teams achieved convincing home wins against Yugoslavia (2-1), Croatia (2-0) in Euro 2000 qualification, and also Iran (2-0) in the World Cup 2002 playoff home leg. The standout result of course was the legendary 1-0 home win against Netherlands which guaranteed second place in the group ahead of the Dutch and secured the playoff spot against Iran.
McCarthy’s successor Brian Kerr was always very well prepared on opposition teams and players but tended to play with caution against the bigger teams at home. Hence we didn’t manage to beat any of our qualification rivals at home in the matches under Kerr for Euro 2004 and World Cup 2006. Russia, Israel, France and Switzerland left Dublin with a draw or win during that time. Blowing the 2-0 home lead against Israel in 2005 to draw 2-2 was effectively the mortal blow to the World Cup 2006 qualification hopes after the group had started so well for Kerr.
We know that Giovanni Trapattoni preferred the away matches against stronger nations, setting up his team to dig in defensively and try to score from a set piece or counter attack. And in fairness he had reasonable success. The home matches were the problem. He never seemed to be able to trust the players’ talents to take the game to opposition teams at home. Hence the biggest wins we managed at home under Trap in competitive matches were the likes of unconvincing 2-1 wins against Georgia in 2009 and Macedonia and Armenia in 2011. The injury time equaliser by Alberto Gilardino in Croke Park to bring Italy back to 2-2 was the biggest chance missed of toppling a major nation at home. So along with Italy, Bulgaria and Montenegro also managed draws in Dublin in 2009 while France won 1-0 in the World Cup playoff leg in Dublin. The now infamous 1-1 draw in Paris in the 2nd leg was – putting the Henry handball to one side here – the most assured and skilful Irish performance home or away against a big nation since the 1-1 draw with Spain in World Cup 2002. The cornerstone of our qualification for Euro 2012 were good results away from home, while again our home results were poor with Slovakia drawing in Dublin while Russia won 3-2. Estonia drew in the playoff 2nd leg but the job had been done by then with the 4-0 first leg win in Tallinn.
Ironic that despite Steve Staunton’s Irish tenure being viewed in hindsight in farcical terms, at least he managed to show some home form during the Euro 2008 campaign against qualification rivals when both Wales and Slovakia were beaten 1-0 within four days in March 2007. And in both matches, Ireland played with a measure of composure and control. Unfortunately the damage had been done earlier in that campaign with the 5-2 defeat in Cyprus and the near calamity in San Marino with the injury time winner by Stephen Ireland sparing what would have been Ireland’s worst result in our footballing history. The top two finishers in the group came away from Dublin unbeaten with Czech Republic and Germany securing draws.
Although the squad of players Martin O’Neill and Roy Keane now oversee cannot come close to the World Cup 1990 or 2002 vintage, they still need to set out a team against Poland and Scotland that believes it can win and plays with this belief. Comparisons of the current Polish and Scottish international squads show that overall they are similar in stature to ours. Lewandowski and Arek Milik (Ajax) aside, Poland has few players playing at the highest level with exposure to Champions League football. Eleven of the twenty four players named in their squad for the Ireland match play in the Polish league. The majority of the Scottish squad come from teams in the lower end of the Premier League and English Championship, as well as a handful from the Scottish league. The point being that the home factor has to come into play between three squads of similar quality.
After the Poland and Scotland matches, we have Gibraltar away and Georgia at home within four days in September. A likely six points. A maximum twelve point haul in those four games will leave us on 19 points going into the final two matches and firmly in the mix for top two and automatic qualification. We might hear this week from the management team that four points from six would be a healthy return from Poland and Scotland matches. Six points would be much better! We’ve had enough draws against big teams to last us a lifetime, and usually they don’t lead to automatic qualification for major tournaments. Hopefully O’Neill can take some inspiration from the Irish rugby management and try to make Lansdowne Road a fortress again. A place where we expect to beat our main rivals. Wouldn’t it be great to see Ireland take the game to Poland on Sunday night on our home turf? Showing them who’s boss in Dublin. Bullying them around the park. Taking the initiative. Playing with belief and guile. If we can play that way and win, the lacklustre defeat in Scotland last November can be forgotten.
Kevin McCarthy
March 2015